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If you are capable, please help us to create good quality subtitles: https://c3subtitles.de/talk/1421 Thanks! 1 00:00:17,980 --> 00:00:20,979 The dire reality of the climate crisis. 2 00:00:20,980 --> 00:00:23,529 Quick question, who among you was 3 00:00:23,530 --> 00:00:25,539 in this year and 2019? 4 00:00:25,540 --> 00:00:27,639 Who has been to a demonstration 5 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:29,169 against climate change? 6 00:00:29,170 --> 00:00:31,119 At least one show hands like Fridays for 7 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:32,829 Future or something else? 8 00:00:32,830 --> 00:00:35,499 I would say that's like ninety five 9 00:00:35,500 --> 00:00:37,179 ninety seven percent of the audience. 10 00:00:37,180 --> 00:00:39,009 Thank you very much. 11 00:00:39,010 --> 00:00:41,709 And one of the Fridays 12 00:00:41,710 --> 00:00:44,049 for Future demonstrations that I went to 13 00:00:44,050 --> 00:00:46,299 was very impressive for me 14 00:00:46,300 --> 00:00:47,979 because I felt that they had a very 15 00:00:47,980 --> 00:00:50,679 interesting balance between the situation 16 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,479 is really, really bad and we were all 17 00:00:52,480 --> 00:00:54,459 fact. And on the other hand, but it's not 18 00:00:54,460 --> 00:00:56,319 too late, we can do something so people 19 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,869 are getting really scared, but also like 20 00:00:58,870 --> 00:01:00,969 a constructive and motivated to 21 00:01:00,970 --> 00:01:03,009 do something. So it's an emotional and 22 00:01:03,010 --> 00:01:04,598 intellectual rollercoaster. 23 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:06,309 And in this talk, we're going to learn a 24 00:01:06,310 --> 00:01:08,529 little bit more about what the scientists 25 00:01:08,530 --> 00:01:10,779 say and if it's better to freak 26 00:01:10,780 --> 00:01:12,249 out or be motivated. 27 00:01:12,250 --> 00:01:13,839 And our speakers Hanno Beck. 28 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,189 He's an I.T. 29 00:01:15,190 --> 00:01:17,139 security professional, and he writes 30 00:01:17,140 --> 00:01:19,509 regularly for the media outlet column. 31 00:01:19,510 --> 00:01:21,489 And with that, I leave you with him. 32 00:01:21,490 --> 00:01:22,449 I hope you learn a lot. 33 00:01:22,450 --> 00:01:24,399 Please give Hannah a big one round of 34 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:25,749 applause and have a lot of fun with this 35 00:01:25,750 --> 00:01:26,769 talk. Thank you very much. 36 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:30,979 Yeah. 37 00:01:30,980 --> 00:01:33,619 Hello. Um, yeah. 38 00:01:33,620 --> 00:01:35,689 Uh, just adding to the introduction 39 00:01:35,690 --> 00:01:37,519 like about this, should we be freaked out 40 00:01:37,520 --> 00:01:40,189 and should we be motivated after 41 00:01:40,190 --> 00:01:41,899 last time I gave such a talk. 42 00:01:41,900 --> 00:01:43,909 Someone came to me and said, Yeah, if I 43 00:01:43,910 --> 00:01:46,189 listen to you, it seems like this doesn't 44 00:01:46,190 --> 00:01:48,739 make any sense and and uh, 45 00:01:48,740 --> 00:01:50,149 we will lose anyway. 46 00:01:50,150 --> 00:01:52,429 Which heavily influenced how I changed 47 00:01:52,430 --> 00:01:53,629 the talk for this time. 48 00:01:53,630 --> 00:01:54,529 So. 49 00:01:54,530 --> 00:01:55,530 But you will see that. 50 00:01:57,500 --> 00:01:59,869 So first, I want to show you this graph. 51 00:01:59,870 --> 00:02:03,199 This is the worldwide CO2 emissions. 52 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,479 It's CO2 only their other 53 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:06,439 greenhouse gases. 54 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,079 But that's kind of the big issue. 55 00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:11,329 And as you can see, 56 00:02:11,330 --> 00:02:13,459 they're mostly growing. 57 00:02:13,460 --> 00:02:15,769 And that's kind of the timeframe 58 00:02:15,770 --> 00:02:18,079 in which we had something like 59 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,359 international climate policy. 60 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:22,459 Um, so 61 00:02:22,460 --> 00:02:25,189 like, we knew there was a problem. 62 00:02:25,190 --> 00:02:27,199 I mean, some of you were probably not 63 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,500 even born in 1990, but, uh, 64 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:32,359 humanity knew that there was a problem 65 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:34,489 and we just went on. 66 00:02:34,490 --> 00:02:36,589 And so I call 67 00:02:36,590 --> 00:02:38,460 this the chart of epic climate failure. 68 00:02:39,510 --> 00:02:41,629 Um, but I 69 00:02:41,630 --> 00:02:42,049 also want 70 00:02:42,050 --> 00:02:44,299 to point out a few more specific things. 71 00:02:44,300 --> 00:02:46,579 There kind of two points 72 00:02:46,580 --> 00:02:48,709 where it goes down a little 73 00:02:48,710 --> 00:02:50,899 bit like notably down 74 00:02:50,900 --> 00:02:52,699 there, if you like that statistical 75 00:02:52,700 --> 00:02:55,069 variation, but they are two points where 76 00:02:55,070 --> 00:02:57,289 you can kind of see that emissions went 77 00:02:57,290 --> 00:02:58,249 down. 78 00:02:58,250 --> 00:03:00,319 Um, one of them is 79 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,239 when the Soviet Union collapsed and the 80 00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:04,519 other one is the economic crisis in 81 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:06,049 2009. 82 00:03:06,050 --> 00:03:08,119 Um, and 83 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:09,829 I show you a few more points here. 84 00:03:09,830 --> 00:03:11,570 That is kind of important 85 00:03:12,950 --> 00:03:15,559 events in international climate policy. 86 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:17,659 So we have the UN Earth 87 00:03:17,660 --> 00:03:19,819 Summit in the early 90s, which 88 00:03:19,820 --> 00:03:21,949 was basically the start of international 89 00:03:21,950 --> 00:03:24,529 climate policy, the UNFCCC, 90 00:03:24,530 --> 00:03:26,659 which is the UN body to organize 91 00:03:26,660 --> 00:03:27,949 the climate conference since it was 92 00:03:27,950 --> 00:03:29,509 founded there. 93 00:03:29,510 --> 00:03:31,639 So there the world said, 94 00:03:31,640 --> 00:03:34,579 Yeah, we have to do something about this. 95 00:03:34,580 --> 00:03:36,949 And then there was the Kyoto Protocol, 96 00:03:36,950 --> 00:03:39,259 which was, uh, praised as 97 00:03:39,260 --> 00:03:41,269 the first international binding, which 98 00:03:41,270 --> 00:03:42,769 was not technically true. 99 00:03:42,770 --> 00:03:44,689 But uh, that's what they said. 100 00:03:44,690 --> 00:03:47,059 Binding agreement to reduce greenhouse 101 00:03:47,060 --> 00:03:48,799 gases, which you can see was very 102 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,419 successful just in the wrong direction. 103 00:03:51,420 --> 00:03:52,699 Um, and 104 00:03:52,700 --> 00:03:54,919 we have the Paris Agreement and just 105 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:55,099 went 106 00:03:55,100 --> 00:03:57,709 on. Um, so 107 00:03:57,710 --> 00:03:58,710 yeah. 108 00:03:59,060 --> 00:04:01,819 So um, where are we? 109 00:04:01,820 --> 00:04:05,029 Uh, we are currently at roughly 110 00:04:05,030 --> 00:04:06,529 one degree of warming. 111 00:04:06,530 --> 00:04:08,659 And I think one part 112 00:04:08,660 --> 00:04:10,879 why we are discussing this now, why 113 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:12,529 this is the big topic here at the 114 00:04:12,530 --> 00:04:14,479 Congress and why. 115 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:16,699 Uh, yeah, 116 00:04:16,700 --> 00:04:18,828 the the topic is now part 117 00:04:18,829 --> 00:04:21,078 of the mainstream discussion is that we 118 00:04:21,079 --> 00:04:23,609 are actually seeing climate change. 119 00:04:23,610 --> 00:04:25,189 So, um, 120 00:04:25,190 --> 00:04:27,289 I am sure you remember, like right now, 121 00:04:27,290 --> 00:04:29,329 it's really cold. But in the summer it 122 00:04:29,330 --> 00:04:31,939 was really hot and we had several 123 00:04:31,940 --> 00:04:32,839 heat records. 124 00:04:32,840 --> 00:04:34,999 In Germany, we had several 125 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,429 instances where it was above 40 degrees, 126 00:04:37,430 --> 00:04:39,589 which in the past just was 127 00:04:39,590 --> 00:04:41,219 not a thing in Germany. 128 00:04:41,220 --> 00:04:43,309 And you 129 00:04:43,310 --> 00:04:45,499 right now have a lot of fires 130 00:04:45,500 --> 00:04:46,500 in Australia 131 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:48,589 and also in Australia. 132 00:04:48,590 --> 00:04:50,689 There were plenty of heat records in 133 00:04:50,690 --> 00:04:52,939 the past couple of weeks 134 00:04:52,940 --> 00:04:55,069 and is, of course, just two examples. 135 00:04:55,070 --> 00:04:55,969 I mean, there are 136 00:04:55,970 --> 00:04:58,039 many more um. 137 00:04:58,040 --> 00:04:58,859 Yeah. 138 00:04:58,860 --> 00:05:00,919 So what is politics 139 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:02,419 doing about this? So 140 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:05,839 you probably know that there's this Paris 141 00:05:05,840 --> 00:05:08,149 agreement, which was agreed 142 00:05:08,150 --> 00:05:10,279 upon by all the nations of the world in 143 00:05:10,280 --> 00:05:12,139 2015. 144 00:05:12,140 --> 00:05:13,609 And um, 145 00:05:13,610 --> 00:05:16,099 so it's an international treaty where 146 00:05:16,100 --> 00:05:18,079 all the nations in the world agreed to a 147 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,179 three degree of global heating. 148 00:05:20,180 --> 00:05:22,339 Well, that's not what it's 149 00:05:22,340 --> 00:05:24,319 written in it. It's probably also not 150 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,179 what you heard about it. 151 00:05:26,180 --> 00:05:28,339 Um, but technically that's 152 00:05:28,340 --> 00:05:29,209 what it is. 153 00:05:29,210 --> 00:05:31,399 So, um, 154 00:05:32,570 --> 00:05:34,279 in the text of the Paris Agreement, it 155 00:05:34,280 --> 00:05:36,799 says, yeah, the 156 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:38,869 we want to limit the global 157 00:05:38,870 --> 00:05:41,119 temperature rise to well below two 158 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:42,709 degrees Celsius 159 00:05:42,710 --> 00:05:43,279 and 160 00:05:43,280 --> 00:05:44,479 well below is. 161 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,909 Even then, it also says 162 00:05:46,910 --> 00:05:48,529 we should be pursuing efforts to limit 163 00:05:48,530 --> 00:05:51,509 the temperature increase to 1.5 degree. 164 00:05:51,510 --> 00:05:53,059 We're currently at one degree. 165 00:05:53,060 --> 00:05:55,489 So but the problem 166 00:05:55,490 --> 00:05:57,649 is that there's not really any plan 167 00:05:57,650 --> 00:05:58,879 how to do this. 168 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:00,979 So Paris Agreement is kind of 169 00:06:00,980 --> 00:06:02,329 saying that's what we want, 170 00:06:02,330 --> 00:06:05,109 but yeah, whatever. 171 00:06:05,110 --> 00:06:07,279 Um, so 172 00:06:07,280 --> 00:06:08,959 how this Paris agreement works? 173 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:10,609 Is there something that is called 174 00:06:10,610 --> 00:06:13,039 nationally determined contributions, 175 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,199 which basically is 176 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,539 voluntary actions by nations so a nation 177 00:06:17,540 --> 00:06:20,029 say, yeah, we have a plan to reduce 178 00:06:20,030 --> 00:06:22,489 our greenhouse gas emissions. 179 00:06:22,490 --> 00:06:24,439 That's what we commit to. 180 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:27,019 And erm, 181 00:06:27,020 --> 00:06:27,289 if you 182 00:06:27,290 --> 00:06:28,849 count them together. 183 00:06:28,850 --> 00:06:31,009 And estimate what the outcome will be, 184 00:06:31,010 --> 00:06:32,629 and this is an official U.N. 185 00:06:32,630 --> 00:06:34,759 document, so it's not 186 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,679 from some, I don't know, radical climate 187 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:39,139 scientists. This is the U.N. 188 00:06:39,140 --> 00:06:41,479 that this adds up to roughly three 189 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:44,419 point two degrees temperature rise. 190 00:06:44,420 --> 00:06:46,639 Um, and and 191 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:48,769 that is if the nations commit 192 00:06:48,770 --> 00:06:51,019 to what they said, which 193 00:06:51,020 --> 00:06:52,100 usually they don't. 194 00:06:53,870 --> 00:06:54,409 Yeah. 195 00:06:54,410 --> 00:06:56,509 So so to 196 00:06:56,510 --> 00:06:58,609 give you a bit of an idea, I mean, in the 197 00:06:58,610 --> 00:07:00,079 climate discussion, there's often these 198 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,239 degree numbers and to get a bit 199 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:04,309 of an idea, like currently, 200 00:07:04,310 --> 00:07:06,469 we're at one degree above what 201 00:07:06,470 --> 00:07:08,659 it was before humanity started 202 00:07:08,660 --> 00:07:10,579 emitting greenhouse gases. 203 00:07:10,580 --> 00:07:12,949 Um, then the Paris Agreement 204 00:07:12,950 --> 00:07:15,319 kind of says we should get 205 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,449 limited to at least two degrees, and 206 00:07:17,450 --> 00:07:19,489 it would be better to limit it to 1.5 207 00:07:19,490 --> 00:07:20,689 degrees. 208 00:07:20,690 --> 00:07:23,299 But the actual Paris Agreement 209 00:07:23,300 --> 00:07:25,609 commitments are around 210 00:07:25,610 --> 00:07:27,189 three degrees. 211 00:07:27,190 --> 00:07:29,449 Um, and if you have 212 00:07:29,450 --> 00:07:31,609 a realistic view on current policy, it's 213 00:07:31,610 --> 00:07:32,610 maybe more. 214 00:07:33,980 --> 00:07:35,959 Um yeah. 215 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:38,089 So what is the science saying about this? 216 00:07:38,090 --> 00:07:40,279 So um, 217 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,009 this this institution called the IPCC, 218 00:07:43,010 --> 00:07:45,409 which is, um, international 219 00:07:45,410 --> 00:07:46,879 science premium. 220 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,219 And they are they are. 221 00:07:49,220 --> 00:07:51,349 They are not doing research themselves, 222 00:07:51,350 --> 00:07:53,509 but they are creating a summary of 223 00:07:53,510 --> 00:07:55,009 of the climate research. 224 00:07:55,010 --> 00:07:57,499 So trying to to find the essence 225 00:07:57,500 --> 00:08:00,699 of what the science figured out. 226 00:08:00,700 --> 00:08:03,859 Um, and 227 00:08:03,860 --> 00:08:04,039 the 228 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:06,619 so they create regular big reports, 229 00:08:06,620 --> 00:08:08,659 but the last one is kind of outdated by 230 00:08:08,660 --> 00:08:11,179 now. Um, and they published 231 00:08:11,180 --> 00:08:13,399 a special report which gained quite 232 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,309 some attention, uh, in 2018. 233 00:08:16,310 --> 00:08:18,409 And this was a direct reaction to 234 00:08:18,410 --> 00:08:20,599 the Paris Agreement because 235 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:22,729 the Paris Agreement had this two degree, 236 00:08:22,730 --> 00:08:23,719 1.5 degree. 237 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:25,499 And so they said, yeah, the scientists 238 00:08:25,500 --> 00:08:26,089 should figure 239 00:08:26,090 --> 00:08:27,379 out 240 00:08:27,380 --> 00:08:29,809 what does it mean to a degree, 1.5 241 00:08:29,810 --> 00:08:30,859 degree? 242 00:08:30,860 --> 00:08:32,449 What's the difference? 243 00:08:32,450 --> 00:08:34,639 And there were kind 244 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,879 of two main messages from this report. 245 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:39,619 One of it is that there's a big 246 00:08:39,620 --> 00:08:41,719 difference between 1.5 degree and 247 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:42,918 two degree. 248 00:08:42,919 --> 00:08:45,529 And the other message is that 249 00:08:45,530 --> 00:08:48,049 1.5 degree is still doable 250 00:08:48,050 --> 00:08:50,359 under some optimistic 251 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:51,360 assumptions. 252 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:57,239 So what does that mean, 1.5 253 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:58,589 degree or two degree? 254 00:08:58,590 --> 00:09:00,689 Uh, so, uh, yes, a 255 00:09:00,690 --> 00:09:03,789 nice picture of some coral reefs. 256 00:09:03,790 --> 00:09:06,029 Um, unfortunately, 257 00:09:06,030 --> 00:09:08,129 I have to tell you that in 258 00:09:08,130 --> 00:09:09,869 the future there won't be any more such 259 00:09:09,870 --> 00:09:11,639 pictures because soon they will all look 260 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,309 like this very likely. 261 00:09:14,310 --> 00:09:15,329 Um, what 262 00:09:15,330 --> 00:09:17,549 this report estimated is 263 00:09:17,550 --> 00:09:19,350 that if you have 1.5 degree, 264 00:09:20,430 --> 00:09:20,639 we 265 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,039 will probably lose at least 70 percent 266 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:25,189 of coral reefs worldwide. 267 00:09:25,190 --> 00:09:28,289 Uh, if we have to degree you, basically 268 00:09:28,290 --> 00:09:30,599 almost all the coral reefs will be lost 269 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:31,600 will be destroyed. 270 00:09:32,700 --> 00:09:34,889 And I mean, currently, even to a degree, 271 00:09:34,890 --> 00:09:35,890 seems ambitious. 272 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,239 Um, it 273 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:41,459 will happen much more often 274 00:09:41,460 --> 00:09:43,799 that the Arctic will be ice free 275 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:45,149 for 1.5 degree. 276 00:09:45,150 --> 00:09:47,489 This is estimated to be. 277 00:09:47,490 --> 00:09:49,919 Uh, this is a switch. 278 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:51,989 Sorry, that's a mistake 279 00:09:51,990 --> 00:09:53,339 for one 1.5 degree. 280 00:09:53,340 --> 00:09:55,169 It's estimated every hundred years, and 281 00:09:55,170 --> 00:09:57,419 for two degree, it's estimated every 282 00:09:57,420 --> 00:09:58,919 ten years. 283 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,349 Um, then 284 00:10:01,350 --> 00:10:03,629 it's expected that two degrees will mean 285 00:10:03,630 --> 00:10:05,649 more sea level rise. 286 00:10:05,650 --> 00:10:07,469 Um, it's 287 00:10:07,470 --> 00:10:08,849 a relatively minor difference here. 288 00:10:08,850 --> 00:10:10,919 But still, I mean, that matters for 289 00:10:10,920 --> 00:10:13,169 foreign nations for every centimeter 290 00:10:13,170 --> 00:10:15,450 means more area lost. 291 00:10:16,890 --> 00:10:17,890 Um, 292 00:10:19,350 --> 00:10:20,269 and 293 00:10:20,270 --> 00:10:21,989 this I think this is one of the things 294 00:10:21,990 --> 00:10:22,499 that, 295 00:10:22,500 --> 00:10:24,599 um, that that 296 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:24,839 very 297 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:26,309 directly impacts humans. 298 00:10:26,310 --> 00:10:28,169 The estimate of how many people will be 299 00:10:28,170 --> 00:10:30,299 affected by extreme heat and extreme 300 00:10:30,300 --> 00:10:32,459 heat can also mean something like you 301 00:10:32,460 --> 00:10:34,619 cannot just go outside anymore 302 00:10:34,620 --> 00:10:36,839 without any kind of 303 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:38,489 cooling support. 304 00:10:38,490 --> 00:10:40,589 Uh, that this will be more than 305 00:10:40,590 --> 00:10:42,899 doubled with two degrees Celsius 306 00:10:45,300 --> 00:10:46,319 and all of us. 307 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:48,389 Keep in mind right now we're on a path 308 00:10:48,390 --> 00:10:50,429 to three degrees. So yeah. 309 00:10:53,260 --> 00:10:55,809 So what would be needed to achieve 310 00:10:55,810 --> 00:10:57,909 1.5 degrees so the path 311 00:10:57,910 --> 00:11:00,069 would be roughly reduce the 312 00:11:00,070 --> 00:11:02,229 greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent 313 00:11:02,230 --> 00:11:04,629 in the next ten years and, 314 00:11:04,630 --> 00:11:05,889 uh, 315 00:11:05,890 --> 00:11:08,439 come to a carbon neutral state 316 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:10,150 by roughly 2050? 317 00:11:11,550 --> 00:11:13,390 Um, so 318 00:11:14,860 --> 00:11:17,379 um but um, 319 00:11:17,380 --> 00:11:18,729 lately there has been quite some 320 00:11:18,730 --> 00:11:19,749 discussion is 321 00:11:21,130 --> 00:11:23,469 the IPCC is telling us the full story 322 00:11:23,470 --> 00:11:25,479 or if they are rather underestimating 323 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:27,759 some of the effects of climate change. 324 00:11:28,810 --> 00:11:30,909 Um, so many scientists are 325 00:11:30,910 --> 00:11:33,189 worried that the IPCC is too 326 00:11:33,190 --> 00:11:35,439 conservative because like 327 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,419 they are kind of trying to create a 328 00:11:37,420 --> 00:11:39,489 consensus of the 329 00:11:39,490 --> 00:11:41,619 view of the scientific community. 330 00:11:41,620 --> 00:11:44,199 And they also have a lot of pressure from 331 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,599 because I mean, you know that there are 332 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:48,849 basically, uh, nations 333 00:11:48,850 --> 00:11:51,039 that we're the head of state deniers, 334 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,649 that climate change exists and 335 00:11:53,650 --> 00:11:55,509 these people also find the IPCC. 336 00:11:55,510 --> 00:11:57,309 So there's a lot of pressure from people 337 00:11:57,310 --> 00:11:58,749 who basically don't believe in climate 338 00:11:58,750 --> 00:12:00,939 change. And also, there's this consensus 339 00:12:00,940 --> 00:12:02,739 view, which can lead to 340 00:12:02,740 --> 00:12:05,229 that maybe more 341 00:12:05,230 --> 00:12:06,230 important 342 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:08,320 outliers that they are not 343 00:12:09,670 --> 00:12:11,769 viewed as much, even though you 344 00:12:11,770 --> 00:12:13,839 probably should also have a look 345 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:15,639 at what the worst outcome would be. 346 00:12:17,270 --> 00:12:18,399 Um, and 347 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,529 there has been, uh, kind of 348 00:12:20,530 --> 00:12:22,629 meta study where some scientists 349 00:12:22,630 --> 00:12:25,089 looked at IPCC predictions and compared 350 00:12:25,090 --> 00:12:26,709 them to, 351 00:12:26,710 --> 00:12:28,239 um, to 352 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:29,319 what actually happened. 353 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:31,029 And they came to the conclusion. 354 00:12:31,030 --> 00:12:33,249 Yeah, the available evidence 355 00:12:33,250 --> 00:12:35,199 suggests that scientists have in fact 356 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:36,759 been too conservative in their 357 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:38,169 projections of the impact of climate 358 00:12:38,170 --> 00:12:39,419 change. 359 00:12:39,420 --> 00:12:41,139 Uh, we suggest, therefore, that 360 00:12:41,140 --> 00:12:43,719 scientists are biased not of US alarmism, 361 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:45,759 but rather the reverse to us cautious 362 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:47,919 estimates where we define caution as 363 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:49,509 erring on the side of less rather than 364 00:12:49,510 --> 00:12:50,769 more alarming predictions. 365 00:12:53,500 --> 00:12:55,569 And like recently, this has 366 00:12:55,570 --> 00:12:57,969 been picked up by the New York Times, 367 00:12:57,970 --> 00:12:58,749 where, 368 00:12:58,750 --> 00:12:59,589 uh, they 369 00:12:59,590 --> 00:13:01,019 had this article, which was a bit, 370 00:13:01,020 --> 00:13:02,499 um, that's a 371 00:13:02,500 --> 00:13:04,629 bit problematic because it kind 372 00:13:04,630 --> 00:13:06,969 of had this like, 373 00:13:06,970 --> 00:13:09,429 uh, somewhat populist 374 00:13:09,430 --> 00:13:11,289 headline how the scientists got climate 375 00:13:11,290 --> 00:13:12,290 change so wrong. 376 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:15,579 I mean, there were scientists who were 377 00:13:15,580 --> 00:13:17,979 warning about this, and it's 378 00:13:17,980 --> 00:13:20,559 been part of the process. 379 00:13:20,560 --> 00:13:22,089 Um, but 380 00:13:22,090 --> 00:13:23,949 also occasionally you can then read 381 00:13:23,950 --> 00:13:25,899 headlines like this for its climate. 382 00:13:25,900 --> 00:13:27,699 Models have accurately predicted global 383 00:13:27,700 --> 00:13:29,379 heating study finds, 384 00:13:29,380 --> 00:13:30,380 and 385 00:13:31,630 --> 00:13:32,649 that 386 00:13:32,650 --> 00:13:34,029 this was based on a study. 387 00:13:34,030 --> 00:13:35,859 Or they came to the conclusion. 388 00:13:35,860 --> 00:13:37,539 We find that climate models published 389 00:13:37,540 --> 00:13:39,369 over the past five decades were generally 390 00:13:39,370 --> 00:13:41,079 quite accurate in predicting global 391 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,060 warming in the years after publication. 392 00:13:44,730 --> 00:13:46,869 Um, so 393 00:13:48,850 --> 00:13:49,299 maybe 394 00:13:49,300 --> 00:13:51,069 you find that confusing. 395 00:13:51,070 --> 00:13:53,469 I also find these things occasionally 396 00:13:53,470 --> 00:13:55,659 confusing. When I read climate 397 00:13:55,660 --> 00:13:57,639 scientists, they were underestimating the 398 00:13:57,640 --> 00:13:59,019 effects and then it's OK. 399 00:13:59,020 --> 00:14:01,599 They were very accurate, actually, 400 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,669 but there's usually if you 401 00:14:03,670 --> 00:14:05,529 dig down a bit, there's an explanation. 402 00:14:05,530 --> 00:14:06,850 And the explanation here is 403 00:14:07,870 --> 00:14:09,609 that actually, climate scientists have 404 00:14:09,610 --> 00:14:12,279 probably underestimated the effects of 405 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:13,449 climate change, 406 00:14:13,450 --> 00:14:14,139 but 407 00:14:14,140 --> 00:14:16,479 their models on on temperature rise 408 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:18,729 have been very accurate. 409 00:14:18,730 --> 00:14:20,289 Um yeah. 410 00:14:20,290 --> 00:14:21,819 Sorry, the wrong slide. 411 00:14:21,820 --> 00:14:23,230 Um, so 412 00:14:24,310 --> 00:14:25,629 um, and I 413 00:14:25,630 --> 00:14:27,249 mean, that can both be true, right? 414 00:14:27,250 --> 00:14:29,529 So the uh, the prediction 415 00:14:29,530 --> 00:14:31,719 on the average, well, mean 416 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:33,999 temperature has been very 417 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,189 accurate, but that's usually not 418 00:14:36,190 --> 00:14:37,089 what we care about. 419 00:14:37,090 --> 00:14:39,159 We care about things like storms, like 420 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:41,349 fires, like heating on, 421 00:14:41,350 --> 00:14:43,509 like more local events, which directly 422 00:14:43,510 --> 00:14:45,049 impact humans. 423 00:14:45,050 --> 00:14:46,329 Um, and 424 00:14:46,330 --> 00:14:47,859 if you're more interested in that, I 425 00:14:47,860 --> 00:14:49,599 recently watched a very interesting 426 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:51,669 interview and this is on YouTube. 427 00:14:51,670 --> 00:14:53,199 I have linked it here. 428 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:54,200 So, yeah, 429 00:14:55,450 --> 00:14:57,290 um uh. 430 00:14:58,510 --> 00:14:59,379 Yeah, then 431 00:14:59,380 --> 00:15:00,969 you may be wondering like the climate 432 00:15:00,970 --> 00:15:03,129 scientists are telling us, Yeah, we 433 00:15:03,130 --> 00:15:05,199 need to act very fast to avoid 434 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:07,029 the worst outcomes of climate change. 435 00:15:07,030 --> 00:15:09,129 But but we can still do it. 436 00:15:09,130 --> 00:15:11,229 And maybe 437 00:15:11,230 --> 00:15:12,729 you have heard something like that ten 438 00:15:12,730 --> 00:15:14,829 years ago and you wonder, how is that 439 00:15:14,830 --> 00:15:16,149 possible? 440 00:15:16,150 --> 00:15:17,150 And 441 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:20,379 because like, as I kind of 442 00:15:20,380 --> 00:15:22,329 said, the science did not get more 443 00:15:22,330 --> 00:15:23,979 optimistic. 444 00:15:23,980 --> 00:15:26,739 And uh, 445 00:15:26,740 --> 00:15:28,989 the reason for that is that climate 446 00:15:28,990 --> 00:15:30,879 scientists recently started adding 447 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:32,889 something called negative emissions into 448 00:15:32,890 --> 00:15:35,019 their models, which means 449 00:15:35,020 --> 00:15:37,089 they estimate that in the future, we will 450 00:15:37,090 --> 00:15:39,609 be able to reverse emitting 451 00:15:39,610 --> 00:15:41,109 CO2. 452 00:15:41,110 --> 00:15:42,110 And 453 00:15:43,510 --> 00:15:45,609 so most of these scenarios that 454 00:15:45,610 --> 00:15:48,159 they are calculating where we achieve 455 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:50,319 to a degree or 1.5 degree, they are 456 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:51,899 estimating that that's what. 457 00:15:51,900 --> 00:15:53,639 We will do in the future. 458 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:54,690 And so, 459 00:15:55,770 --> 00:15:56,579 um. 460 00:15:56,580 --> 00:15:58,769 So you may wonder, how can we do 461 00:15:58,770 --> 00:16:00,359 negative emissions? 462 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,129 We can do things like planting trees 463 00:16:02,130 --> 00:16:04,199 because a tree, when it grows, 464 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,479 it sucks in CO2 from the air 465 00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,459 and that is turned into 466 00:16:08,460 --> 00:16:09,460 what 467 00:16:12,510 --> 00:16:12,719 that 468 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:14,909 is great. But it has very obvious 469 00:16:14,910 --> 00:16:16,889 limits because the Earth has only a 470 00:16:16,890 --> 00:16:19,019 finite amount of land 471 00:16:19,020 --> 00:16:20,309 and 472 00:16:20,310 --> 00:16:22,409 the the amount of land where we can 473 00:16:22,410 --> 00:16:24,539 plant trees will probably 474 00:16:24,540 --> 00:16:26,909 get smaller due to climate change because 475 00:16:26,910 --> 00:16:28,469 we will have to a level of rice and we 476 00:16:28,470 --> 00:16:31,499 will have more heat. 477 00:16:31,500 --> 00:16:34,199 So we should plant trees 478 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:34,679 a lot. 479 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,069 But um, it's 480 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,169 there's only so much you can do here. 481 00:16:40,170 --> 00:16:42,269 And so we need to talk about 482 00:16:42,270 --> 00:16:43,889 something which is called carbon capture 483 00:16:43,890 --> 00:16:45,489 and storage. 484 00:16:45,490 --> 00:16:47,729 Um, the idea 485 00:16:47,730 --> 00:16:49,979 here is that we get carbon dioxide 486 00:16:49,980 --> 00:16:52,379 and then we started underground. 487 00:16:52,380 --> 00:16:55,229 And originally 488 00:16:55,230 --> 00:16:57,359 this um 489 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,789 entered the discussion in the context 490 00:16:59,790 --> 00:17:02,069 of building nuclear power plants. 491 00:17:02,070 --> 00:17:04,679 For example, in Germany, I remember 492 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:06,809 roughly ten years ago 493 00:17:06,810 --> 00:17:08,608 I was living in cuts way back 494 00:17:08,609 --> 00:17:09,299 then, 495 00:17:09,300 --> 00:17:11,429 and there was a new coal fired 496 00:17:11,430 --> 00:17:13,649 power plant built in College Square. 497 00:17:13,650 --> 00:17:15,719 And some people were saying, Hey, isn't 498 00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:18,059 that not so good for the climate? 499 00:17:18,060 --> 00:17:20,098 And then some people said, Yeah, that's 500 00:17:20,099 --> 00:17:22,199 no problem because we already plant in 501 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,450 the future to use cars on that plant. 502 00:17:26,339 --> 00:17:27,389 That never happened, 503 00:17:27,390 --> 00:17:29,849 but that's how they 504 00:17:29,850 --> 00:17:30,779 said it then. 505 00:17:30,780 --> 00:17:32,849 And this is not just happening 506 00:17:32,850 --> 00:17:34,409 and what's not just happening in Germany 507 00:17:34,410 --> 00:17:36,569 basically asks for coal or 508 00:17:36,570 --> 00:17:38,519 gas plants that have largely been a 509 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:39,520 failure. 510 00:17:41,670 --> 00:17:43,589 So today there's only a handful of 511 00:17:43,590 --> 00:17:45,899 projects running and the 512 00:17:45,900 --> 00:17:47,219 the impact, it's minimal. 513 00:17:47,220 --> 00:17:48,389 So it's really small. 514 00:17:48,390 --> 00:17:50,579 And the most of the projects 515 00:17:50,580 --> 00:17:52,919 that are running are in the context 516 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,599 of something which is called enhanced oil 517 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:55,709 recovery. 518 00:17:55,710 --> 00:17:57,089 And what they are doing there is they're 519 00:17:57,090 --> 00:17:59,459 pumping CO2 into old 520 00:17:59,460 --> 00:18:01,919 oilfields and can squeeze 521 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:03,299 a bit more oil out there. 522 00:18:04,330 --> 00:18:06,929 Now you maybe get the idea that 523 00:18:06,930 --> 00:18:08,729 that's maybe not the best thing for the 524 00:18:08,730 --> 00:18:10,679 climate as well, because that means more 525 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:11,970 oil and 526 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:16,889 um. But in order to get to 527 00:18:16,890 --> 00:18:18,479 negative emissions, we need to do 528 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:20,549 something different. And one way is you 529 00:18:20,550 --> 00:18:23,009 could imagine doing bioenergy 530 00:18:23,010 --> 00:18:25,199 like, for example, using biogas plants 531 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,359 or burning what and then 532 00:18:27,360 --> 00:18:29,009 coupling that with CSS. 533 00:18:29,010 --> 00:18:31,379 So I don't know if, for example, you 534 00:18:31,380 --> 00:18:33,419 burn wood and then you capture the 535 00:18:33,420 --> 00:18:34,859 emissions and then you store them on the 536 00:18:34,860 --> 00:18:35,860 ground. 537 00:18:37,830 --> 00:18:39,779 Now this obviously has all the problems 538 00:18:39,780 --> 00:18:41,879 that you usually have with bioenergy. 539 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:43,949 That is, it 540 00:18:43,950 --> 00:18:46,049 competes with with land 541 00:18:46,050 --> 00:18:48,239 for food, and if 542 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,639 you use pesticides and 543 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,649 fertilizers that has the climate impact 544 00:18:52,650 --> 00:18:54,959 as well. And if you plant, 545 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:56,999 I don't know, palm oil where there was 546 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,219 previously a rainforest and it is really 547 00:18:59,220 --> 00:19:00,839 terrible for the climate. 548 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,299 So that's not a very good solution. 549 00:19:03,300 --> 00:19:05,549 And basically the 550 00:19:05,550 --> 00:19:07,649 the discussion is moving away from 551 00:19:07,650 --> 00:19:09,809 that because people realized the 552 00:19:09,810 --> 00:19:11,939 the effect of bioenergy are so 553 00:19:11,940 --> 00:19:13,739 negative that it's probably not a good 554 00:19:13,740 --> 00:19:14,009 idea 555 00:19:14,010 --> 00:19:15,010 to do that. 556 00:19:15,570 --> 00:19:17,699 Another thing you could do for negative 557 00:19:17,700 --> 00:19:19,409 emissions, it's called direct air 558 00:19:19,410 --> 00:19:21,569 capture, which means you run a big 559 00:19:21,570 --> 00:19:24,209 machine that 560 00:19:24,210 --> 00:19:26,489 sucks in air and extract the carbon 561 00:19:26,490 --> 00:19:28,679 dioxide and then 562 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,989 you store that underground, 563 00:19:30,990 --> 00:19:31,990 and 564 00:19:33,090 --> 00:19:34,589 that technically works. 565 00:19:34,590 --> 00:19:36,269 So there are a few startups working on 566 00:19:36,270 --> 00:19:37,679 that. 567 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,899 But these machines 568 00:19:39,900 --> 00:19:41,909 themselves will, of course, require a lot 569 00:19:41,910 --> 00:19:44,399 of energy, and it is 570 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,649 questionable how realistic is 571 00:19:46,650 --> 00:19:49,169 to scale that up to international 572 00:19:49,170 --> 00:19:50,099 levels. 573 00:19:50,100 --> 00:19:52,199 And I'll get later to actually 574 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:53,879 how much energy we are talking about 575 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,309 here. And obviously, the energy 576 00:19:56,310 --> 00:19:58,409 that you use for that needs to 577 00:19:58,410 --> 00:20:00,479 come from something like wind or solar, 578 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,729 because if you fire it by a coal-fired 579 00:20:02,730 --> 00:20:04,439 power plant, that does not make any 580 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:05,440 sense. 581 00:20:06,420 --> 00:20:08,549 I'm so, 582 00:20:08,550 --> 00:20:11,259 so one criticism here is that the IPCC 583 00:20:11,260 --> 00:20:13,889 and their optimistic scenarios 584 00:20:13,890 --> 00:20:16,109 largely rely on technology 585 00:20:16,110 --> 00:20:18,569 that does not really exist at scale, 586 00:20:18,570 --> 00:20:21,329 like their test installations. 587 00:20:21,330 --> 00:20:23,659 But uh yeah, 588 00:20:23,660 --> 00:20:23,879 they 589 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,009 have very optimistic outlooks and how 590 00:20:26,010 --> 00:20:27,450 fast this can be scaled up. 591 00:20:29,820 --> 00:20:31,999 And even if the technology kind of works, 592 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,169 you one can wonder how this should 593 00:20:34,170 --> 00:20:36,509 work economically and politically 594 00:20:36,510 --> 00:20:38,669 because like for someone to 595 00:20:38,670 --> 00:20:41,069 run a negative emission 596 00:20:41,070 --> 00:20:43,499 plant, there's no profit 597 00:20:43,500 --> 00:20:45,869 in that. So you would probably 598 00:20:45,870 --> 00:20:47,129 have it. I don't know. 599 00:20:47,130 --> 00:20:48,899 State funded. And then there's the 600 00:20:48,900 --> 00:20:51,089 question of who pays 601 00:20:51,090 --> 00:20:53,159 for that and why it why 602 00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:54,209 should a country do that? 603 00:20:54,210 --> 00:20:56,069 You have basically have the same problems 604 00:20:56,070 --> 00:20:58,169 you have with climate policy, 605 00:20:58,170 --> 00:21:00,469 with reducing emissions that yeah. 606 00:21:01,890 --> 00:21:04,199 Um, so um, 607 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:05,200 another 608 00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:08,489 issue with the science is, uh, 609 00:21:08,490 --> 00:21:10,469 this discussion about so-called tipping 610 00:21:10,470 --> 00:21:12,689 points and feedback loops, and 611 00:21:12,690 --> 00:21:15,269 this is probably the most worrying 612 00:21:15,270 --> 00:21:17,399 criticism of the current climate 613 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:18,400 science. 614 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,389 Um, so 615 00:21:21,390 --> 00:21:23,759 um yeah. 616 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,709 Uh, so 617 00:21:25,710 --> 00:21:27,569 we have a lot of feedback loops in the 618 00:21:27,570 --> 00:21:29,819 Earth system, which is to 619 00:21:29,820 --> 00:21:32,069 put it chart when we have warming, 620 00:21:32,070 --> 00:21:34,499 and that causes even more bombing. 621 00:21:34,500 --> 00:21:37,019 So an example for this is 622 00:21:37,020 --> 00:21:39,749 when ice is melting because 623 00:21:39,750 --> 00:21:40,409 um, 624 00:21:40,410 --> 00:21:42,779 as you can see on this picture, ice 625 00:21:42,780 --> 00:21:44,909 is very bright, but water 626 00:21:44,910 --> 00:21:46,559 is very dark. 627 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,839 That means if are sunlight shining 628 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:50,999 on ice, then it's reflected a lot of 629 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:51,959 it. 630 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,819 And if the if the ice melts, 631 00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:56,909 then the sunlight is shining on 632 00:21:56,910 --> 00:21:57,509 the ocean. 633 00:21:57,510 --> 00:21:58,949 And uh, 634 00:21:58,950 --> 00:22:01,889 and that means less energy is reflected. 635 00:22:01,890 --> 00:22:04,469 So this means if we have melting ice, 636 00:22:04,470 --> 00:22:06,779 then we have more warming. 637 00:22:06,780 --> 00:22:07,780 Following that, 638 00:22:10,170 --> 00:22:12,389 this is called the albedo feedback loop. 639 00:22:12,390 --> 00:22:13,390 Yeah. 640 00:22:13,870 --> 00:22:15,619 Um, and 641 00:22:15,620 --> 00:22:17,909 these tipping points 642 00:22:17,910 --> 00:22:19,949 you call something a tipping point when 643 00:22:19,950 --> 00:22:22,019 you have a system 644 00:22:22,020 --> 00:22:23,880 that at some point 645 00:22:24,990 --> 00:22:27,179 it will turn into 646 00:22:27,180 --> 00:22:29,579 a process that something collapses. 647 00:22:29,580 --> 00:22:31,439 And even if we stop 648 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,659 further emissions and 649 00:22:33,660 --> 00:22:35,889 uh, one example for that where 650 00:22:35,890 --> 00:22:38,129 where it's generally assumed by science 651 00:22:38,130 --> 00:22:40,319 that this is already happening is the 652 00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,239 West Antarctic ice field. 653 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,309 So the the 654 00:22:44,310 --> 00:22:46,409 assumption is that even if we stop 655 00:22:46,410 --> 00:22:48,779 emitting CO2 now or 656 00:22:48,780 --> 00:22:50,849 and the planet is not getting any warmer, 657 00:22:50,850 --> 00:22:52,829 that this ice field will completely, 658 00:22:52,830 --> 00:22:54,779 completely melt down 659 00:22:54,780 --> 00:22:55,109 and 660 00:22:55,110 --> 00:22:57,389 that in the long run will mean, 661 00:22:57,390 --> 00:22:59,639 uh, one to three meters of sea level rise 662 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:01,709 just by the West Antarctic ice field. 663 00:23:01,710 --> 00:23:03,839 And there's probably more ice free or 664 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:05,069 said it that will melt. 665 00:23:07,410 --> 00:23:09,759 And there's a 666 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:11,819 death risk that these 667 00:23:11,820 --> 00:23:14,099 feedback loops and tipping points could 668 00:23:14,100 --> 00:23:17,189 could cause a cascade where 669 00:23:17,190 --> 00:23:18,899 some effects cause more warming. 670 00:23:18,900 --> 00:23:21,179 That, uh, that brings 671 00:23:21,180 --> 00:23:23,189 some other processes in motion and that 672 00:23:23,190 --> 00:23:25,319 causes even more warming. 673 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:28,019 And um, there's been a study 674 00:23:28,020 --> 00:23:30,299 in 2018 which is 675 00:23:30,300 --> 00:23:31,859 kind of known as the hothouse Earth 676 00:23:31,860 --> 00:23:34,019 study, where they looked at 677 00:23:34,020 --> 00:23:35,729 at various of these tipping points that 678 00:23:35,730 --> 00:23:38,249 feedback loops and how they interact. 679 00:23:38,250 --> 00:23:40,499 And um, 680 00:23:40,500 --> 00:23:40,769 they 681 00:23:40,770 --> 00:23:42,869 came to the conclusion that even 682 00:23:42,870 --> 00:23:45,689 with just two degrees of warming, 683 00:23:45,690 --> 00:23:47,459 it may be that we end up in such a 684 00:23:47,460 --> 00:23:49,059 scenario. 685 00:23:49,060 --> 00:23:51,179 Now I want to add 686 00:23:51,180 --> 00:23:52,169 some caveats here. 687 00:23:52,170 --> 00:23:53,699 One is that there's significant 688 00:23:53,700 --> 00:23:56,009 uncertainty. So when scientists say 689 00:23:56,010 --> 00:23:58,259 this may happen with two degrees, 690 00:23:58,260 --> 00:24:00,419 that doesn't mean they are sure about it. 691 00:24:00,420 --> 00:24:02,249 That means they are worried that this 692 00:24:02,250 --> 00:24:03,250 could happen. 693 00:24:04,110 --> 00:24:06,419 And also, these are long 694 00:24:06,420 --> 00:24:08,609 term effects. So we're talking here about 695 00:24:08,610 --> 00:24:11,339 hundreds or thousands of years. 696 00:24:11,340 --> 00:24:13,499 So this is not probably 697 00:24:13,500 --> 00:24:15,599 not something you will experience 698 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:16,710 or I will experience. 699 00:24:20,060 --> 00:24:22,240 So, yeah, what would need to happen? 700 00:24:24,830 --> 00:24:26,899 Obviously, we need to stop burning 701 00:24:26,900 --> 00:24:28,129 fossil fuels, right? 702 00:24:28,130 --> 00:24:30,349 So we we 703 00:24:30,350 --> 00:24:32,239 really need to get rid of something like 704 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,579 this. This is the general 705 00:24:34,580 --> 00:24:36,019 idea. Open cast mine. 706 00:24:36,020 --> 00:24:38,899 It's near the border to Poland. 707 00:24:38,900 --> 00:24:40,669 Um, if 708 00:24:40,670 --> 00:24:42,969 I recommend everyone that that 709 00:24:42,970 --> 00:24:45,259 you go to one of these open cast 710 00:24:45,260 --> 00:24:47,269 mines and look at it because it's really 711 00:24:47,270 --> 00:24:49,909 kind of looks like a 712 00:24:49,910 --> 00:24:51,889 nightmare scenario. 713 00:24:51,890 --> 00:24:54,259 This one very close here in, uh, 714 00:24:54,260 --> 00:24:56,329 it's roughly half an hour over 715 00:24:56,330 --> 00:24:57,569 the train. 716 00:24:57,570 --> 00:24:59,719 Uh, so I don't know, maybe if after 717 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:01,099 the Congress, you want to see an open 718 00:25:01,100 --> 00:25:02,689 cast mine? 719 00:25:02,690 --> 00:25:03,690 Um. 720 00:25:07,190 --> 00:25:09,349 One kind of good news here 721 00:25:09,350 --> 00:25:11,539 is that it's probably 722 00:25:11,540 --> 00:25:13,609 much easier to build renewable energies 723 00:25:13,610 --> 00:25:15,229 than we fought in the past. 724 00:25:16,300 --> 00:25:18,439 Um, this 725 00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,299 I really like this graph. 726 00:25:20,300 --> 00:25:22,399 This is from a Dutch researcher 727 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,049 called OK Scott. 728 00:25:24,050 --> 00:25:25,280 And what he did was 729 00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:28,759 the black line is the 730 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:29,329 worldwide 731 00:25:29,330 --> 00:25:32,269 installations of solar energy 732 00:25:32,270 --> 00:25:33,379 and the 733 00:25:33,380 --> 00:25:34,309 colorful lines. 734 00:25:34,310 --> 00:25:36,949 Here are the predictions of the 735 00:25:36,950 --> 00:25:39,259 International Energy Agency. 736 00:25:39,260 --> 00:25:41,419 So what you can see here, like the 737 00:25:41,420 --> 00:25:43,579 International Energy Agency, kind of 738 00:25:43,580 --> 00:25:46,009 all of this assumes that solar power is 739 00:25:46,010 --> 00:25:48,259 more or less flat, even though 740 00:25:48,260 --> 00:25:50,689 it's growing exponentially. 741 00:25:50,690 --> 00:25:52,879 And they they noticed that their 742 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,009 starting point, they have to move that, 743 00:25:55,010 --> 00:25:56,779 but they don't really seem to notice that 744 00:25:56,780 --> 00:25:58,430 they are not getting a trend here. 745 00:25:59,960 --> 00:26:02,089 Um, so 746 00:26:02,090 --> 00:26:03,859 and that also means, like a lot of people 747 00:26:03,860 --> 00:26:05,929 are relying on these, uh, reports 748 00:26:05,930 --> 00:26:08,429 from the International Energy Agency. 749 00:26:08,430 --> 00:26:10,669 Uh, so 750 00:26:10,670 --> 00:26:12,889 we can probably be more optimistic 751 00:26:12,890 --> 00:26:15,289 about the outlook of renewable energy 752 00:26:15,290 --> 00:26:17,239 than what is usually assumed by 753 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:18,240 governments. 754 00:26:19,970 --> 00:26:22,489 Um, so so 755 00:26:22,490 --> 00:26:23,269 what? 756 00:26:23,270 --> 00:26:25,729 Usually the big plan is for for, 757 00:26:25,730 --> 00:26:28,159 uh, reducing greenhouse gases is, 758 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:29,719 yeah, we should switch to carbon free 759 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,819 electricity and 760 00:26:31,820 --> 00:26:33,859 then we should use electricity for 761 00:26:33,860 --> 00:26:34,860 everything. 762 00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,149 Um, so 763 00:26:38,150 --> 00:26:38,959 um, 764 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:40,669 just that you get a bit of an area that 765 00:26:40,670 --> 00:26:43,009 is how worldwide electricity production 766 00:26:43,010 --> 00:26:45,559 is. The big thing is coal. 767 00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,019 Um, the green 768 00:26:48,020 --> 00:26:49,759 thing and the blue thing that is 769 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,109 renewable energy. 770 00:26:51,110 --> 00:26:52,879 Hydro is the biggest one because the 771 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:54,979 natural humanity has been using 772 00:26:54,980 --> 00:26:56,179 for a long time. 773 00:26:56,180 --> 00:26:58,879 But the green thing is growing rapidly. 774 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,309 And I mean, I can easily 775 00:27:01,310 --> 00:27:03,619 imagine that we managed to solve this 776 00:27:03,620 --> 00:27:05,719 and get the green thing to cover 777 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,519 everything with the growth rates we 778 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,069 currently have in renewable energy. 779 00:27:10,070 --> 00:27:12,289 Um, but what worries 780 00:27:12,290 --> 00:27:13,939 me a bit is thinking about how much 781 00:27:13,940 --> 00:27:16,549 electricity we will need in the end. 782 00:27:16,550 --> 00:27:18,949 And just to give you some numbers 783 00:27:18,950 --> 00:27:21,169 we currently have, uh, roughly 784 00:27:21,170 --> 00:27:24,139 twenty six hours per year, 785 00:27:24,140 --> 00:27:24,949 uh, 786 00:27:24,950 --> 00:27:26,179 worldwide electricity 787 00:27:26,180 --> 00:27:27,409 production. 788 00:27:27,410 --> 00:27:29,509 And that is only a small share 789 00:27:29,510 --> 00:27:31,699 of overall energy production that 790 00:27:31,700 --> 00:27:33,499 is 160 out 791 00:27:33,500 --> 00:27:34,500 of 792 00:27:35,180 --> 00:27:37,339 which includes everything from heating 793 00:27:37,340 --> 00:27:39,469 and cars and airplanes 794 00:27:39,470 --> 00:27:41,029 and industry. 795 00:27:42,620 --> 00:27:44,799 So somehow, we need to turn all 796 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,239 of that into renewable energy, 797 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:48,919 electricity use. 798 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,659 Um, it will 799 00:27:50,660 --> 00:27:52,429 get more efficient in some sense. 800 00:27:52,430 --> 00:27:54,859 Some situations, for example, an electric 801 00:27:54,860 --> 00:27:57,289 car is more efficient than, uh, 802 00:27:57,290 --> 00:27:58,669 gas powered car. 803 00:27:58,670 --> 00:28:00,889 But but still, this is a lot. 804 00:28:00,890 --> 00:28:02,509 And then there are things like if we want 805 00:28:02,510 --> 00:28:05,149 to turn the petrochemical industry so 806 00:28:05,150 --> 00:28:07,609 plastics chemicals 807 00:28:07,610 --> 00:28:09,949 into, uh, use renewable 808 00:28:09,950 --> 00:28:10,849 energy for that. 809 00:28:10,850 --> 00:28:13,099 We can do this by using something 810 00:28:13,100 --> 00:28:15,889 called carbon capture and use are also 811 00:28:15,890 --> 00:28:17,929 called politics. 812 00:28:17,930 --> 00:28:20,209 There was a talk on that on the camp. 813 00:28:20,210 --> 00:28:22,099 If you want to watch that. 814 00:28:22,100 --> 00:28:23,479 That was very good. 815 00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,549 But there's been a study that if we 816 00:28:25,550 --> 00:28:27,289 want to turn the current petrochemical 817 00:28:27,290 --> 00:28:29,689 industry, uh, use 818 00:28:29,690 --> 00:28:31,489 renewable energy for that, it would be 819 00:28:31,490 --> 00:28:34,189 something between 18 and 32 820 00:28:34,190 --> 00:28:35,359 hours per year. 821 00:28:35,360 --> 00:28:37,429 So that is kind of where we 822 00:28:37,430 --> 00:28:39,319 would need all the electricity we have 823 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,209 today worldwide. 824 00:28:41,210 --> 00:28:42,979 Uh, like 825 00:28:42,980 --> 00:28:45,019 double that just to replace the 826 00:28:45,020 --> 00:28:46,639 petrochemical industry. 827 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,439 And we talked earlier about these 828 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:50,239 negative emissions. 829 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,369 This is a number from the IPCC report 830 00:28:52,370 --> 00:28:54,919 where they estimated that we might need 831 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,439 43 Petworth hours per year 832 00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,689 by 2100 just 833 00:28:59,690 --> 00:29:01,969 for negative emissions, just to 834 00:29:01,970 --> 00:29:04,009 remove the CO2 that's already in the 835 00:29:04,010 --> 00:29:05,869 atmosphere and that's causing harm. 836 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:10,159 And like in a talk here 837 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,039 two days ago by a scientist, he said, 838 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:14,989 Yeah, that sounds crazy, but we will do 839 00:29:14,990 --> 00:29:17,059 that because climate change will be so 840 00:29:17,060 --> 00:29:18,060 bad. 841 00:29:19,460 --> 00:29:20,839 So, so 842 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:22,549 looking at that, I mean, you can easily 843 00:29:22,550 --> 00:29:25,549 see we will probably not just 844 00:29:25,550 --> 00:29:27,799 need the electricity we generate today 845 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,469 and make that clean electricity, 846 00:29:30,470 --> 00:29:33,259 but probably multiple times that. 847 00:29:33,260 --> 00:29:34,479 And I 848 00:29:35,540 --> 00:29:37,339 wish it all that electricity came from. 849 00:29:37,340 --> 00:29:39,379 I have a hard time imagining that. 850 00:29:39,380 --> 00:29:40,380 I mean, 851 00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,279 the good news is renewable energy is not 852 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,259 really limited. We have. 853 00:29:45,260 --> 00:29:47,089 If you think about putting solar plants 854 00:29:47,090 --> 00:29:49,219 in the desert or using offshore 855 00:29:49,220 --> 00:29:51,439 wind energy, there's plenty of space. 856 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,629 But it's obvious that 857 00:29:53,630 --> 00:29:55,609 this is really, really challenging. 858 00:29:55,610 --> 00:29:57,559 So, um, 859 00:29:58,730 --> 00:30:01,189 and we're not just talking about energy. 860 00:30:01,190 --> 00:30:03,199 There are some things that are even 861 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,359 harder. So 862 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,099 this is a cement plant. 863 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:11,720 Who knows how cement is made? 864 00:30:13,490 --> 00:30:14,419 A few. 865 00:30:14,420 --> 00:30:15,439 Yeah. 866 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,749 So what to do when you make cement 867 00:30:17,750 --> 00:30:20,749 is you're you're using 868 00:30:20,750 --> 00:30:23,210 limestone, which is mostly 869 00:30:24,380 --> 00:30:26,629 calcium carbonate, and then 870 00:30:26,630 --> 00:30:28,819 you burn it with a lot of 871 00:30:28,820 --> 00:30:31,069 heat. And then what you get out is 872 00:30:31,070 --> 00:30:33,829 calcium oxide and CO2. 873 00:30:33,830 --> 00:30:36,209 So, um, 874 00:30:38,780 --> 00:30:39,319 so 875 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,479 the the thing in this formula is 876 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:43,789 that you can see their CO2 on the right 877 00:30:43,790 --> 00:30:44,719 side. 878 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,299 And that is part of the chemistry 879 00:30:47,300 --> 00:30:49,219 that does not come from the energy we 880 00:30:49,220 --> 00:30:51,739 need to make cement, but the chemistry 881 00:30:51,740 --> 00:30:54,589 to make cement emits CO2. 882 00:30:54,590 --> 00:30:57,019 And there's not really 883 00:30:57,020 --> 00:30:59,209 any technology to 884 00:30:59,210 --> 00:31:01,309 avoid that, except using 885 00:31:01,310 --> 00:31:03,169 something like CFCs. 886 00:31:03,170 --> 00:31:05,059 And this alone, this cement emissions, 887 00:31:05,060 --> 00:31:07,189 the chemical cement emissions 888 00:31:07,190 --> 00:31:09,409 that is five percent of the worldwide 889 00:31:09,410 --> 00:31:10,669 carbon dioxide emissions. 890 00:31:12,980 --> 00:31:15,139 So the only plan really to do something 891 00:31:15,140 --> 00:31:17,449 about it would be either using CSS or 892 00:31:17,450 --> 00:31:19,549 using these direct air 893 00:31:19,550 --> 00:31:21,619 capture plants to later get the emissions 894 00:31:21,620 --> 00:31:23,299 back out of the air. 895 00:31:23,300 --> 00:31:25,879 Um yeah. 896 00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,099 Then here's another uh, 897 00:31:28,100 --> 00:31:29,929 not a technology, but something that 898 00:31:29,930 --> 00:31:31,999 humans do with that they keep cows. 899 00:31:33,110 --> 00:31:35,719 Um, Carlos also caused emissions 900 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:37,189 methane. 901 00:31:37,190 --> 00:31:39,499 Um, and 902 00:31:39,500 --> 00:31:41,659 it is um. 903 00:31:41,660 --> 00:31:44,239 Overall, emissions from livestock is 904 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,519 roughly 15 percent of the worldwide 905 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,439 greenhouse gas emissions. 906 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,839 And also for that, there's not 907 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:51,739 really a solution. 908 00:31:51,740 --> 00:31:53,869 I mean, you can replace parts of it, 909 00:31:53,870 --> 00:31:56,179 like running a tractor on on 910 00:31:56,180 --> 00:31:57,180 electricity. 911 00:31:58,220 --> 00:32:00,259 But these methane emissions, there's not 912 00:32:00,260 --> 00:32:01,399 really a solution. 913 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,679 So maybe the solution is this this 914 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,779 is the impossible 915 00:32:05,780 --> 00:32:06,780 burger 916 00:32:07,940 --> 00:32:10,189 I read yesterday in a big German news 917 00:32:10,190 --> 00:32:12,589 publications that they are unhealthy, 918 00:32:12,590 --> 00:32:14,899 which is obviously like, you're missing 919 00:32:14,900 --> 00:32:17,319 the point. That's not what this is about. 920 00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,549 Um, I don't eat 921 00:32:19,550 --> 00:32:22,069 these things, but I really hope that 922 00:32:22,070 --> 00:32:24,229 this is becoming successful because we 923 00:32:24,230 --> 00:32:26,119 need to do something about that. 924 00:32:28,530 --> 00:32:30,609 Um, so 925 00:32:30,610 --> 00:32:32,989 maybe my point here is because very often 926 00:32:32,990 --> 00:32:34,969 environmentalists tend to say, Yeah, we 927 00:32:34,970 --> 00:32:36,559 have all of the solutions and we just 928 00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:37,759 have to do it. 929 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,279 I would say, yeah, we have the solutions, 930 00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,380 but this is not going to be easy. 931 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,309 And then there's this 932 00:32:49,310 --> 00:32:51,469 thing called geo engineering, 933 00:32:51,470 --> 00:32:53,539 so geo engineering 934 00:32:53,540 --> 00:32:55,699 is where when you wonder, like, 935 00:32:55,700 --> 00:32:58,069 can we do something to impact the climate 936 00:32:58,070 --> 00:33:00,199 system where we counteract the 937 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,689 warming from the greenhouse effect? 938 00:33:02,690 --> 00:33:05,059 And the most 939 00:33:05,060 --> 00:33:06,869 plausible thing here is something that is 940 00:33:06,870 --> 00:33:08,749 just called solar radiation management, 941 00:33:08,750 --> 00:33:10,909 where you're trying to reflect 942 00:33:10,910 --> 00:33:12,679 more sunlight from the Earth. 943 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:13,680 And 944 00:33:15,210 --> 00:33:17,419 one way to do that is to put aerosols 945 00:33:17,420 --> 00:33:19,849 into the atmosphere, which 946 00:33:19,850 --> 00:33:20,850 is 947 00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:22,279 kind 948 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,769 of understood how this works because 949 00:33:24,770 --> 00:33:26,329 volcanoes also do that. 950 00:33:26,330 --> 00:33:28,669 So if there's a big kokanee eruption, 951 00:33:28,670 --> 00:33:30,559 this will temporarily cause a cooling 952 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:32,119 effect on the Earth because these 953 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:34,069 aerosols in the atmosphere reflect more 954 00:33:34,070 --> 00:33:35,599 sunlight. 955 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:36,600 And 956 00:33:38,090 --> 00:33:40,609 this is currently not widely discussed. 957 00:33:40,610 --> 00:33:42,829 So. And the IPCC, for example, 958 00:33:42,830 --> 00:33:44,749 explicitly excludes this from their 959 00:33:44,750 --> 00:33:45,750 scenarios. 960 00:33:47,270 --> 00:33:49,109 One reason for that is that, 961 00:33:49,110 --> 00:33:51,259 uh, yeah. 962 00:33:51,260 --> 00:33:53,449 But uh, I get to uh, 963 00:33:53,450 --> 00:33:55,549 so usually you would 964 00:33:55,550 --> 00:33:57,619 say, yeah, like blasting plenty 965 00:33:57,620 --> 00:34:00,109 of chemicals into the atmosphere. 966 00:34:00,110 --> 00:34:02,149 It sounds like a pretty crazy idea. 967 00:34:02,150 --> 00:34:04,399 But on the other hand, if we're talking 968 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,319 about a situation where we have a planet 969 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,468 where large parts become uninhabitable, 970 00:34:09,469 --> 00:34:10,039 then 971 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,319 probably we will have to need 972 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,399 to have a discussion about this. 973 00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,879 Um, and 974 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:17,678 but 975 00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:19,849 the big issue here is basically that some 976 00:34:19,850 --> 00:34:22,009 people may think, Yeah, OK, we 977 00:34:22,010 --> 00:34:23,329 have this geoengineering. 978 00:34:23,330 --> 00:34:25,488 We can just blast few chemicals 979 00:34:25,489 --> 00:34:27,169 into the atmosphere and then we can go on 980 00:34:27,170 --> 00:34:28,999 like we do, which is not really 981 00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,069 plausible. But some people 982 00:34:31,070 --> 00:34:33,019 get this idea. And and that is also one 983 00:34:33,020 --> 00:34:35,329 of the reasons why climate 984 00:34:35,330 --> 00:34:37,488 scientists are not 985 00:34:37,489 --> 00:34:39,499 really happy discussing that, which I 986 00:34:39,500 --> 00:34:40,759 don't think is a good outcome. 987 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:42,019 I think we should discuss that. 988 00:34:42,020 --> 00:34:43,669 I'm not saying we should do that, but I 989 00:34:43,670 --> 00:34:45,709 think we should discuss whether that 990 00:34:45,710 --> 00:34:47,869 would be a reasonable thing to do or 991 00:34:47,870 --> 00:34:48,870 not. 992 00:34:51,150 --> 00:34:52,150 Yeah. 993 00:34:52,540 --> 00:34:53,638 Yeah. 994 00:34:53,639 --> 00:34:55,349 I think one issue is that there are a lot 995 00:34:55,350 --> 00:34:57,449 of very wrong ideas about the 996 00:34:57,450 --> 00:34:59,669 climate problem circulating 997 00:34:59,670 --> 00:35:01,679 in the population, so 998 00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:02,669 um, 999 00:35:02,670 --> 00:35:04,409 I found this interesting there. 1000 00:35:04,410 --> 00:35:06,899 There was a survey where there 1001 00:35:06,900 --> 00:35:08,999 are people from Germany were asked 1002 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:11,309 what they think is the most effective 1003 00:35:11,310 --> 00:35:14,159 thing to reduce their personal 1004 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,139 carbon dioxide emissions. 1005 00:35:16,140 --> 00:35:18,509 And the thing that was named most 1006 00:35:18,510 --> 00:35:20,669 was avoiding plastic bags, 1007 00:35:20,670 --> 00:35:22,979 which is like it has a really small 1008 00:35:22,980 --> 00:35:25,319 impact like compared to one 1009 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:26,949 flight or whatever. 1010 00:35:26,950 --> 00:35:29,699 And this is basically nothing. 1011 00:35:29,700 --> 00:35:31,889 Um, and 1012 00:35:31,890 --> 00:35:33,659 like this was completely disconnected 1013 00:35:33,660 --> 00:35:34,709 from the real impacts. 1014 00:35:34,710 --> 00:35:36,809 So people have completely wrong ideas, 1015 00:35:36,810 --> 00:35:38,939 what matters and what doesn't matter. 1016 00:35:38,940 --> 00:35:41,249 And this came to the conclusion that 1017 00:35:41,250 --> 00:35:43,409 like excessively over estimated loss, 1018 00:35:43,410 --> 00:35:45,449 avoiding plastic bags and also regional 1019 00:35:45,450 --> 00:35:48,359 food and excessively underestimated 1020 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,699 was eating meat, which has a relatively 1021 00:35:50,700 --> 00:35:52,769 high impact that people don't like to 1022 00:35:52,770 --> 00:35:53,770 hear that. 1023 00:35:54,430 --> 00:35:56,369 Um, and 1024 00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:00,569 then I think, uh, 1025 00:36:00,570 --> 00:36:02,699 something which I would like to frame 1026 00:36:02,700 --> 00:36:04,190 as efficiency is a lie. 1027 00:36:05,250 --> 00:36:07,799 Um, there's this naive 1028 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,169 idea that if we have technology 1029 00:36:10,170 --> 00:36:11,219 that's more efficient, 1030 00:36:12,240 --> 00:36:13,829 that's a really good thing, because then 1031 00:36:13,830 --> 00:36:15,569 we will use less energy and less 1032 00:36:15,570 --> 00:36:17,099 emissions. 1033 00:36:17,100 --> 00:36:19,199 Um, but this 1034 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,659 is usually not what is happening. 1035 00:36:21,660 --> 00:36:23,099 And I want to show you this. 1036 00:36:23,100 --> 00:36:25,259 This is a car, 1037 00:36:25,260 --> 00:36:26,189 an old car 1038 00:36:26,190 --> 00:36:29,069 from, I don't know, 80s 90s 1039 00:36:29,070 --> 00:36:31,679 folks, fog and golf and 1040 00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:34,289 modern folks fighting car. 1041 00:36:34,290 --> 00:36:35,969 And um, 1042 00:36:37,220 --> 00:36:39,509 the modern car is twice 1043 00:36:39,510 --> 00:36:41,819 as heavy and it needs roughly 1044 00:36:41,820 --> 00:36:44,009 the same amount of fuel. 1045 00:36:44,010 --> 00:36:45,479 So, I mean, that's really, really 1046 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:46,829 efficient. 1047 00:36:46,830 --> 00:36:47,830 Isn't that great? 1048 00:36:49,950 --> 00:36:52,079 Um, so I mean, that's 1049 00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:52,979 an amazing increase. 1050 00:36:52,980 --> 00:36:55,169 We doubled the efficiency, 1051 00:36:55,170 --> 00:36:57,039 but it's just not helping the climate 1052 00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,159 strike, right? We if we have 1053 00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:01,229 cars twice as large and you know 1054 00:37:01,230 --> 00:37:03,239 that that is kind of becoming the new 1055 00:37:03,240 --> 00:37:04,240 norm right now. 1056 00:37:05,300 --> 00:37:06,449 Um yeah. 1057 00:37:06,450 --> 00:37:07,889 And we have more cars as well. 1058 00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,489 Here's another nice graph. 1059 00:37:11,490 --> 00:37:13,859 This is from the Lufthansa sustainability 1060 00:37:13,860 --> 00:37:15,989 report, where they say what they 1061 00:37:15,990 --> 00:37:17,939 what nice things they are doing to to 1062 00:37:17,940 --> 00:37:18,869 become more green. 1063 00:37:18,870 --> 00:37:20,249 And here they are saying that they're 1064 00:37:20,250 --> 00:37:22,349 decoupling the transport 1065 00:37:22,350 --> 00:37:24,419 performance and fuel consumption, which 1066 00:37:24,420 --> 00:37:25,929 I think is not really what the what the 1067 00:37:25,930 --> 00:37:27,989 coupling means, but 1068 00:37:27,990 --> 00:37:29,519 what they are saying. Yes, yeah. 1069 00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:31,739 Look, oh, we're uh, 1070 00:37:31,740 --> 00:37:34,439 they we we're transporting more people. 1071 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,539 And I mean, OK, our fuel consumption 1072 00:37:36,540 --> 00:37:38,159 goes up, but it doesn't go up as 1073 00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:39,539 fast as 1074 00:37:39,540 --> 00:37:40,859 this kind of trivial. 1075 00:37:40,860 --> 00:37:43,019 I mean, you assume that technology gets 1076 00:37:43,020 --> 00:37:45,149 better. You don't assume technology gets 1077 00:37:45,150 --> 00:37:47,219 worse. But still, this is not 1078 00:37:47,220 --> 00:37:49,409 helping like the emissions 1079 00:37:49,410 --> 00:37:50,410 are still going up. 1080 00:37:53,790 --> 00:37:55,919 And this is discussed under 1081 00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:56,879 many different names. 1082 00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,159 One is the Jevons paradox, where 1083 00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:01,379 a researcher back in 1084 00:38:01,380 --> 00:38:03,419 very early times figured out that even 1085 00:38:03,420 --> 00:38:05,489 though the use of coal got more 1086 00:38:05,490 --> 00:38:07,049 efficient, but then people were using 1087 00:38:07,050 --> 00:38:09,119 more coal and not less, and it's 1088 00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:10,949 also named the rebound effect. 1089 00:38:12,300 --> 00:38:14,279 And I think this should be core in 1090 00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,139 basically every discussion about solving 1091 00:38:16,140 --> 00:38:18,299 climate change with technology, but 1092 00:38:18,300 --> 00:38:19,360 it's often just ignored 1093 00:38:21,660 --> 00:38:23,499 and the messages like efficiency. 1094 00:38:23,500 --> 00:38:25,439 I mean, I'm not saying efficiency is bad, 1095 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,689 but the thing is efficiency does 1096 00:38:27,690 --> 00:38:30,059 not automatically reduce emissions. 1097 00:38:30,060 --> 00:38:32,129 And it may even increase them in 1098 00:38:32,130 --> 00:38:33,130 some situations. 1099 00:38:35,820 --> 00:38:36,820 And 1100 00:38:38,070 --> 00:38:39,719 some people, I mean, if you follow the 1101 00:38:39,720 --> 00:38:41,819 political debate in Germany, then 1102 00:38:41,820 --> 00:38:43,229 there are some parties who are saying, 1103 00:38:43,230 --> 00:38:44,999 Yeah, we should solve the climate problem 1104 00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,549 with innovation and technology. 1105 00:38:47,550 --> 00:38:49,619 And like, I'm not against technology 1106 00:38:49,620 --> 00:38:51,119 completely, not I think we need 1107 00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:52,120 technology, but. 1108 00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,209 But I think it's simply not plausible to 1109 00:38:56,210 --> 00:38:58,279 assume that by innovation and 1110 00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,409 technology alone, we will solve this 1111 00:39:00,410 --> 00:39:02,089 problem, or we even we will have any 1112 00:39:02,090 --> 00:39:03,090 meaningful impact. 1113 00:39:06,020 --> 00:39:06,349 Yeah. 1114 00:39:06,350 --> 00:39:08,509 So situation 1115 00:39:08,510 --> 00:39:10,659 is not, uh, 1116 00:39:10,660 --> 00:39:12,409 not not very optimistic. 1117 00:39:13,610 --> 00:39:14,610 Um. 1118 00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:16,320 But um, 1119 00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,289 as I said earlier, after my last talk, 1120 00:39:19,290 --> 00:39:21,259 someone came and said, This sounds like 1121 00:39:21,260 --> 00:39:23,179 there's nothing we can do and it's all 1122 00:39:23,180 --> 00:39:24,180 fucked anyway. 1123 00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:27,259 And if you 1124 00:39:27,260 --> 00:39:28,729 feel sometimes there's a thin line 1125 00:39:28,730 --> 00:39:30,499 between saying how bad it is and then 1126 00:39:30,500 --> 00:39:32,689 saying something which is not really 1127 00:39:32,690 --> 00:39:34,969 supported by the facts. 1128 00:39:34,970 --> 00:39:37,999 And um, 1129 00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,429 there was this article who has read this 1130 00:39:41,980 --> 00:39:43,099 have you? 1131 00:39:43,100 --> 00:39:45,229 So this uh, this was in the 1132 00:39:45,230 --> 00:39:46,999 New York magazine from a journalist 1133 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,129 called David Wallace-Wells, 1134 00:39:49,130 --> 00:39:51,379 which was painting a very dire picture 1135 00:39:51,380 --> 00:39:53,599 of what what the effects of climate 1136 00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:54,600 change will be. 1137 00:39:55,970 --> 00:39:57,800 And he also wrote a book later on that, 1138 00:39:59,010 --> 00:39:59,629 uh, 1139 00:39:59,630 --> 00:40:01,609 this article was based on something 1140 00:40:01,610 --> 00:40:03,829 called RCP 8.5. 1141 00:40:03,830 --> 00:40:06,259 And this is one of the um, climate 1142 00:40:06,260 --> 00:40:08,359 scenarios from the last IPCC 1143 00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:09,360 report. 1144 00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:12,559 Um, so this is the the 1145 00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:14,989 worst emissions 1146 00:40:14,990 --> 00:40:17,419 scenario in the last 1147 00:40:17,420 --> 00:40:19,099 IPCC report. 1148 00:40:19,100 --> 00:40:21,049 Um, and 1149 00:40:21,050 --> 00:40:23,479 sometimes this is referred to as business 1150 00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:25,429 as usual scenario. 1151 00:40:25,430 --> 00:40:27,719 Uh, where the assumption is emissions 1152 00:40:27,720 --> 00:40:29,959 just keep growing. 1153 00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,359 Um, and 1154 00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:34,639 this scenario assumes that 1155 00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:36,949 by 2100, we will use roughly 1156 00:40:36,950 --> 00:40:38,749 six or seven times the amount of coal 1157 00:40:38,750 --> 00:40:40,909 that we do today and how 1158 00:40:40,910 --> 00:40:42,139 they come to these high numbers. 1159 00:40:42,140 --> 00:40:44,239 It's not just the normal growth, but 1160 00:40:44,240 --> 00:40:46,609 also they assume that at some point 1161 00:40:46,610 --> 00:40:48,919 maybe oil will become more scarce 1162 00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:50,989 and then we will start turning coal into 1163 00:40:50,990 --> 00:40:51,999 oil. 1164 00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,329 Well, this is technically possible, but. 1165 00:40:55,650 --> 00:40:57,799 I mean, this scenario, it's not 1166 00:40:57,800 --> 00:40:59,839 something that is impossible, 1167 00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:00,679 but 1168 00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:02,809 it looks rather unlikely. 1169 00:41:02,810 --> 00:41:04,440 And I think it's not. 1170 00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:07,399 If you talk about something like this, 1171 00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,439 you should put it into perspective and 1172 00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:11,569 not painting it as this is the likely 1173 00:41:11,570 --> 00:41:12,570 outcome. 1174 00:41:15,670 --> 00:41:17,739 And these discussions 1175 00:41:17,740 --> 00:41:20,139 about this RCP 8.5 1176 00:41:20,140 --> 00:41:22,239 led to recently, some scientists did 1177 00:41:22,240 --> 00:41:24,459 a calculation where they took the 1178 00:41:24,460 --> 00:41:26,349 current prediction from the International 1179 00:41:26,350 --> 00:41:29,289 Energy Agency, which, as I said earlier, 1180 00:41:29,290 --> 00:41:31,359 are not exactly optimistic about 1181 00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,489 renewable energy and ended up 1182 00:41:33,490 --> 00:41:35,349 with that. 1183 00:41:35,350 --> 00:41:37,599 This would probably lead to something 1184 00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,159 like three degree by the end of the 1185 00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,319 century, but 1186 00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:43,529 with a big uncertainty range. 1187 00:41:43,530 --> 00:41:46,089 Uh, so this this could also be up to 1188 00:41:46,090 --> 00:41:48,579 four point forty three if we are, 1189 00:41:48,580 --> 00:41:50,679 if the effects are more severe 1190 00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:51,850 than we currently assume. 1191 00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:55,779 Um, so, 1192 00:41:55,780 --> 00:41:58,389 uh, so uh, 1193 00:41:58,390 --> 00:42:00,519 what kind of like I? 1194 00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:02,769 The thing is, I find this really tricky. 1195 00:42:02,770 --> 00:42:05,169 How to say like this is implausible, 1196 00:42:05,170 --> 00:42:06,849 but I really don't want to downplay the 1197 00:42:06,850 --> 00:42:08,379 risks so well. 1198 00:42:08,380 --> 00:42:10,629 So the kind of take away here is there 1199 00:42:10,630 --> 00:42:12,939 are some extreme scenarios that 1200 00:42:12,940 --> 00:42:14,089 are rather unlikely. 1201 00:42:14,090 --> 00:42:15,759 But even if you take a plausible 1202 00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:17,829 scenario, that could lead to 1203 00:42:17,830 --> 00:42:20,229 really, really bad outcomes. 1204 00:42:20,230 --> 00:42:23,499 Um. And also one thing that is often 1205 00:42:23,500 --> 00:42:25,149 making these things confusing is that 1206 00:42:25,150 --> 00:42:27,609 most of these scenarios they look at, 1207 00:42:27,610 --> 00:42:29,619 they end 2100. 1208 00:42:29,620 --> 00:42:31,299 But of course, the world does not end at 1209 00:42:31,300 --> 00:42:32,349 2100. 1210 00:42:32,350 --> 00:42:34,089 And when we have these discussions about 1211 00:42:34,090 --> 00:42:35,739 tipping points, we're usually talking 1212 00:42:35,740 --> 00:42:37,390 about much more long term things. 1213 00:42:40,670 --> 00:42:42,559 Then this made a bit of 1214 00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,449 a buzz 1215 00:42:44,450 --> 00:42:46,669 on Twitter lately, so there was a report 1216 00:42:46,670 --> 00:42:49,189 by the International Monetary Fund 1217 00:42:49,190 --> 00:42:51,339 where it's had this sentence describe 1218 00:42:51,340 --> 00:42:52,939 an agreement between economists and 1219 00:42:52,940 --> 00:42:55,159 scientists that the risks are material 1220 00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,499 and the risks of catastrophic and 1221 00:42:57,500 --> 00:43:00,109 irreversible disaster is rising 1222 00:43:00,110 --> 00:43:02,869 so far. Not surprising, but then it's 1223 00:43:02,870 --> 00:43:03,870 um, 1224 00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:06,649 potentially infinite costs of unmitigated 1225 00:43:06,650 --> 00:43:08,779 climate change, including in the extreme 1226 00:43:08,780 --> 00:43:11,119 human extinction, which 1227 00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,029 sounds like quite a severe claim. 1228 00:43:14,030 --> 00:43:15,619 And some people were like, like, why is 1229 00:43:15,620 --> 00:43:17,149 the media not reporting on this? 1230 00:43:17,150 --> 00:43:19,219 And. But I looked into it 1231 00:43:19,220 --> 00:43:21,269 and I was not super convinced like they 1232 00:43:21,270 --> 00:43:23,489 see this. One source cited, which 1233 00:43:23,490 --> 00:43:26,029 was from 2009, which is also 1234 00:43:26,030 --> 00:43:28,249 not. It's a bit old, but and 1235 00:43:28,250 --> 00:43:30,979 I looked into what kind of study is that? 1236 00:43:30,980 --> 00:43:33,199 And this was a study published in an 1237 00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:34,699 economics journal, 1238 00:43:34,700 --> 00:43:35,839 and 1239 00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:36,840 it was kind of 1240 00:43:38,090 --> 00:43:40,219 modeling what 1241 00:43:40,220 --> 00:43:42,409 it would mean when you try 1242 00:43:42,410 --> 00:43:45,169 to find an economically optimal path. 1243 00:43:45,170 --> 00:43:47,029 And when you have a risk, that's not very 1244 00:43:47,030 --> 00:43:49,489 likely, but very extreme. 1245 00:43:49,490 --> 00:43:52,009 But it was not really saying anything 1246 00:43:52,010 --> 00:43:53,999 about the question of human extinction. 1247 00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,179 So I felt it 1248 00:43:56,180 --> 00:43:57,979 was not really justified to have that 1249 00:43:57,980 --> 00:43:59,750 sentence there. And I yeah. 1250 00:44:01,220 --> 00:44:02,959 And like, I really don't want to be 1251 00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:05,449 dismissive about these extreme scenarios 1252 00:44:05,450 --> 00:44:06,450 because like, 1253 00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:09,769 honestly, what three or four degrees 1254 00:44:09,770 --> 00:44:11,869 Celsius means, it's really hard 1255 00:44:11,870 --> 00:44:14,149 to predict. And I would not say 1256 00:44:14,150 --> 00:44:16,429 that we can confidently rule out that 1257 00:44:16,430 --> 00:44:17,989 this will mean something like human 1258 00:44:17,990 --> 00:44:19,129 extinction in the long run. 1259 00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:22,279 But but whenever I read something like 1260 00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:23,839 this, I try to look up the sources and 1261 00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,089 very often not much of 1262 00:44:26,090 --> 00:44:27,170 substance comes up. 1263 00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:30,709 Um yeah. 1264 00:44:30,710 --> 00:44:31,940 Does anyone know this guy? 1265 00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,419 OK, so you're not around 1266 00:44:36,420 --> 00:44:38,579 on the crank sites of the internet, 1267 00:44:38,580 --> 00:44:40,859 and so this guy is called Guy 1268 00:44:40,860 --> 00:44:43,229 McPherson, and he thinks 1269 00:44:43,230 --> 00:44:45,569 climate change will kill us all within 1270 00:44:45,570 --> 00:44:48,059 the next decades, the least latest 1271 00:44:48,060 --> 00:44:50,070 and there's nothing we can do about it. 1272 00:44:52,500 --> 00:44:54,299 The good news is this is not supported by 1273 00:44:54,300 --> 00:44:55,300 the science. 1274 00:44:58,170 --> 00:45:00,119 There's also a web page called Arctic 1275 00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:03,449 News, which is kind of in the same realm. 1276 00:45:03,450 --> 00:45:05,519 This this report is the blog 1277 00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:07,589 written by someone called some Karana, 1278 00:45:07,590 --> 00:45:10,109 which is probably a pseudonym. 1279 00:45:10,110 --> 00:45:12,449 And he has some theories here 1280 00:45:12,450 --> 00:45:14,639 where he says, Yeah, maybe we have a 1281 00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:17,369 warming of 10 degrees by 1282 00:45:17,370 --> 00:45:18,540 2021. 1283 00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:22,019 We will see. 1284 00:45:22,020 --> 00:45:23,020 Probably not. 1285 00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,149 He also has a plan how to stop that, so 1286 00:45:27,150 --> 00:45:29,159 he's more optimistic than the other guy. 1287 00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,629 But yeah, um 1288 00:45:31,630 --> 00:45:32,630 yeah. 1289 00:45:32,930 --> 00:45:35,129 Um, one of the 1290 00:45:35,130 --> 00:45:37,179 theories that a lot of this is based on 1291 00:45:37,180 --> 00:45:39,239 this is something called 1292 00:45:39,240 --> 00:45:41,189 the methane clathrin pump. 1293 00:45:41,190 --> 00:45:43,429 So methane two threats are 1294 00:45:43,430 --> 00:45:45,959 are also methane hydrate hydrates 1295 00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,629 that is frozen methane that is on the 1296 00:45:48,630 --> 00:45:50,369 bottom of the ocean. 1297 00:45:50,370 --> 00:45:52,709 And the idea 1298 00:45:52,710 --> 00:45:55,080 there is that if this all suddenly 1299 00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:56,909 melts 1300 00:45:56,910 --> 00:45:58,979 and uh and divides into 1301 00:45:58,980 --> 00:46:00,749 the atmosphere, that this could cause a 1302 00:46:00,750 --> 00:46:02,459 sudden climate change where we have very 1303 00:46:02,460 --> 00:46:04,169 extreme effects in a very short term. 1304 00:46:06,180 --> 00:46:07,799 There have been a few scientific papers 1305 00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:09,989 about that, but it is generally 1306 00:46:09,990 --> 00:46:12,389 believed that this is simply 1307 00:46:12,390 --> 00:46:13,889 from the physics not possible. 1308 00:46:15,240 --> 00:46:18,329 Um, so um, 1309 00:46:18,330 --> 00:46:20,909 to be clear, these these methane? 1310 00:46:20,910 --> 00:46:22,679 OK, left right. 1311 00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:24,749 This is a real concern, but this 1312 00:46:24,750 --> 00:46:25,889 is a long term concern. 1313 00:46:25,890 --> 00:46:27,659 This is one of the feedback loops I was 1314 00:46:27,660 --> 00:46:29,279 talking about earlier. 1315 00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,469 Um, but 1316 00:46:31,470 --> 00:46:31,649 this 1317 00:46:31,650 --> 00:46:34,049 is not it's not plausible 1318 00:46:34,050 --> 00:46:35,759 that these scenarios, that something like 1319 00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:37,139 that will happen in a very short 1320 00:46:37,140 --> 00:46:38,369 timeframe. 1321 00:46:38,370 --> 00:46:40,439 And and so these these if 1322 00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,059 you have these doomsday predictions, they 1323 00:46:42,060 --> 00:46:44,249 are usually a mixture of using something 1324 00:46:44,250 --> 00:46:46,559 very speculative and saying that 1325 00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:48,569 this is what's going to happen or 1326 00:46:48,570 --> 00:46:50,909 massively overstating some effects and 1327 00:46:50,910 --> 00:46:52,979 also very often confusing long term 1328 00:46:52,980 --> 00:46:53,980 and short term effects. 1329 00:46:56,800 --> 00:46:58,479 Now you could say, OK, this is 1330 00:46:58,480 --> 00:46:59,379 ridiculous. 1331 00:46:59,380 --> 00:47:00,549 There are a lot of cranks in the 1332 00:47:00,550 --> 00:47:03,249 internet, say all kinds of weird things, 1333 00:47:03,250 --> 00:47:04,449 but 1334 00:47:04,450 --> 00:47:05,859 some of these things are going into the 1335 00:47:05,860 --> 00:47:07,869 mainstream. So there was a paper called 1336 00:47:07,870 --> 00:47:09,820 deep adaptation. Has anyone read that? 1337 00:47:11,210 --> 00:47:12,210 Oh, a few. 1338 00:47:14,350 --> 00:47:16,069 And this got a lot of media attention. 1339 00:47:16,070 --> 00:47:17,859 There was this article on why is I think 1340 00:47:17,860 --> 00:47:19,449 this made it kind of famous. 1341 00:47:20,740 --> 00:47:22,989 The climate change paper so depressing 1342 00:47:22,990 --> 00:47:24,459 is sending people to therapy. 1343 00:47:25,510 --> 00:47:26,510 Uh huh.. 1344 00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:29,529 It was rejected by a scientific 1345 00:47:29,530 --> 00:47:31,629 publication due to poor quality, 1346 00:47:31,630 --> 00:47:33,909 and it was heavily citing the 1347 00:47:33,910 --> 00:47:35,679 people. I just showed you earlier that 1348 00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:37,989 are having these crank theories 1349 00:47:37,990 --> 00:47:40,420 about very short term climate effects. 1350 00:47:41,710 --> 00:47:43,479 And there was also this article. 1351 00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:44,619 I have to hurry up a bit 1352 00:47:46,210 --> 00:47:48,219 in The New Yorker, where someone was 1353 00:47:48,220 --> 00:47:50,289 arguing that the we're 1354 00:47:50,290 --> 00:47:51,999 at a point where there's nothing we can 1355 00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:53,309 do anymore. 1356 00:47:53,310 --> 00:47:55,509 Uh, where he 1357 00:47:55,510 --> 00:47:57,789 he said, uh, the consensus among 1358 00:47:57,790 --> 00:48:00,039 scientists and policymakers is that we'll 1359 00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:01,599 pass this point of no return if the 1360 00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:03,789 global mean temperature rises by 1361 00:48:03,790 --> 00:48:05,469 more than two degrees Celsius. 1362 00:48:07,390 --> 00:48:09,039 This is not true. 1363 00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:11,229 Um, I know where it is coming 1364 00:48:11,230 --> 00:48:12,129 from. 1365 00:48:12,130 --> 00:48:13,899 There are scientists who are saying they 1366 00:48:13,900 --> 00:48:15,519 are worried that with two degrees, 1367 00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:17,559 something like that might happen, 1368 00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,409 but saying that 1369 00:48:20,410 --> 00:48:22,689 you think something might happen, 1370 00:48:22,690 --> 00:48:24,579 it's very different from saying there's a 1371 00:48:24,580 --> 00:48:26,679 consensus between the scientists. 1372 00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:27,680 So, 1373 00:48:28,930 --> 00:48:30,459 yeah, so 1374 00:48:30,460 --> 00:48:32,709 and the thing is like, I think 1375 00:48:32,710 --> 00:48:34,869 for one these predictions, 1376 00:48:34,870 --> 00:48:37,059 I want to say things that are correct, 1377 00:48:37,060 --> 00:48:38,680 right? So so I 1378 00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:42,069 trust in the spirit of science, 1379 00:48:42,070 --> 00:48:44,409 but also I think these predictions 1380 00:48:44,410 --> 00:48:46,659 are problematic because you 1381 00:48:46,660 --> 00:48:49,479 can come to this conclusion that that it 1382 00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:51,099 doesn't matter. It's too late to do 1383 00:48:51,100 --> 00:48:52,539 anything about it 1384 00:48:52,540 --> 00:48:54,160 and that 1385 00:48:55,810 --> 00:48:58,359 life in a strange situation where by 1386 00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:00,489 through very different arguments, you can 1387 00:49:00,490 --> 00:49:02,859 come to the conclusion that 1388 00:49:02,860 --> 00:49:04,419 either there are people who are saying, 1389 00:49:04,420 --> 00:49:06,249 Yeah, climate change is hoax, it's not 1390 00:49:06,250 --> 00:49:08,439 happening anyway or it's not happening, 1391 00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:10,269 not caused by humans or it's a good 1392 00:49:10,270 --> 00:49:11,529 thing. 1393 00:49:11,530 --> 00:49:13,629 Or on the other hand, you will have 1394 00:49:13,630 --> 00:49:15,339 people that say there's nothing we can do 1395 00:49:15,340 --> 00:49:17,229 about it and you come to the same 1396 00:49:17,230 --> 00:49:19,829 conclusion. No change is needed. 1397 00:49:19,830 --> 00:49:22,059 And like 1398 00:49:22,060 --> 00:49:24,069 climate change is not a yes or no thing. 1399 00:49:24,070 --> 00:49:25,329 It's not a binary thing. 1400 00:49:25,330 --> 00:49:27,399 It's um, we 1401 00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:28,899 cannot avoid climate change. 1402 00:49:28,900 --> 00:49:30,219 It's already happening. 1403 00:49:30,220 --> 00:49:33,159 But this, 1404 00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:34,359 it's there. 1405 00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:36,579 There's almost no imaginable scenario 1406 00:49:36,580 --> 00:49:38,979 where we're reducing emissions now. 1407 00:49:38,980 --> 00:49:40,959 It's not on the long run, improving the 1408 00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:41,960 situation. 1409 00:49:43,750 --> 00:49:45,249 Um, so 1410 00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:49,029 with this this idea that with these 1411 00:49:49,030 --> 00:49:50,769 these tipping points and feedback loops, 1412 00:49:50,770 --> 00:49:52,959 we will have this one point really 1413 00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:55,359 if it doesn't matter anymore. 1414 00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:57,699 But this 1415 00:49:57,700 --> 00:49:59,889 is not true. So 1416 00:49:59,890 --> 00:50:02,289 if you remember many of these feedback 1417 00:50:02,290 --> 00:50:04,419 effects, this will happen over a 1418 00:50:04,420 --> 00:50:06,729 very long time, particularly melting 1419 00:50:06,730 --> 00:50:07,699 of the ice sheets. 1420 00:50:07,700 --> 00:50:09,549 These are effects unfolding over 1421 00:50:09,550 --> 00:50:11,289 thousands of years. 1422 00:50:11,290 --> 00:50:12,290 And 1423 00:50:13,450 --> 00:50:15,849 even if you imagine a scenario where 1424 00:50:15,850 --> 00:50:18,039 humanity needs to evacuate large 1425 00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,199 areas due to sea level rise and lead, 1426 00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:23,319 which obviously will be terrible 1427 00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:24,320 but 1428 00:50:25,300 --> 00:50:27,519 are, imagine that we need to discuss 1429 00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:29,769 how about geoengineering or negative 1430 00:50:29,770 --> 00:50:32,349 emissions and deploy these technologies? 1431 00:50:32,350 --> 00:50:34,569 Uh, it it will almost 1432 00:50:34,570 --> 00:50:36,339 certainly make a difference if we have 1433 00:50:36,340 --> 00:50:38,259 several decades for this or several 1434 00:50:38,260 --> 00:50:39,260 centuries. 1435 00:50:40,370 --> 00:50:42,669 Um yeah. 1436 00:50:42,670 --> 00:50:44,739 So in summary, yeah, 1437 00:50:44,740 --> 00:50:47,289 the the situation is really bad, 1438 00:50:47,290 --> 00:50:49,509 but but still, it absolutely matters what 1439 00:50:49,510 --> 00:50:51,219 we do about it. 1440 00:50:51,220 --> 00:50:52,690 So, yeah, 1441 00:50:53,890 --> 00:50:54,909 um, 1442 00:50:54,910 --> 00:50:57,069 so for the new year, I ask 1443 00:50:57,070 --> 00:50:58,659 you to think about what you can do to 1444 00:50:58,660 --> 00:50:59,660 stop this. 1445 00:51:00,340 --> 00:51:01,340 Yeah, thanks. 1446 00:51:10,630 --> 00:51:11,769 Great, thank you very much. 1447 00:51:11,770 --> 00:51:13,929 You actually landed on point. 1448 00:51:13,930 --> 00:51:16,149 Yeah. So that also means, unfortunately, 1449 00:51:16,150 --> 00:51:17,889 that we do not have time for questions 1450 00:51:17,890 --> 00:51:18,890 and answers.